The Angry Exile: Ice free arctic now predicted to occur no less than three separate times

The Hangman

Into our town the Hangman came,
Smelling of gold and blood and flame.
And he paced our bricks with a diffident air,
And built his frame in the courthouse square.
The scaffold stood by the courthouse side,
Only as wide as the door was wide;
A frame as tall, or little more,
Than the capping sill of the courthouse door.
And we wondered, whenever we had the time,
Who the criminal, what the crime
That the Hangman judged with the yellow twist
of knotted hemp in his busy fist.
And innocent though we were, with dread,
We passed those eyes of buckshot lead --
Till one cried: "Hangman, who is he
For whom you raised the gallows-tree?"
Then a twinkle grew in the buckshot eye,
And he gave us a riddle instead of reply:
"He who serves me best," said he,
"Shall earn the rope of the gallows-tree."
And he stepped down, and laid his hand
On a man who came from another land.
And we breathed again, for another's grief
At the Hangman's hand was our relief
And the gallows-frame on the courthouse lawn
By tomorrow's sun would be struck and gone.
So we gave him way, and no one spoke,
Out of respect for his Hangman's cloak.
The next day's sun looked mildly down
On roof and street in our quiet town,
And stark and black in the morning air
Was the gallows-tree in the courthouse square.
And the Hangman stood at his usual stand
With the yellow hemp in his busy hand;
With his buckshot eye and his jaw like a pike
And his air so knowing and business-like.
And we cried, "Hangman, have you not done
Yesterday, with the foreign one?"
Then we fell silent, and stood amazed,
"Oh, not for him was the gallows raised."
He laughed a laugh as he looked at us:
"Did you think I'd gone to all this fuss
To hang one man? That's a thing I do
To stretch a rope when the rope is new."
Then one cried "Murder!" and one cried "Shame!"
And into our midst the Hangman came
To that man's place. "Do you hold," said he,
"with him that was meant for the gallows-tree?"
And he laid his hand on that one's arm.
And we shrank back in quick alarm!
And we gave him way, and no one spoke
Out of fear of his Hangman's cloak.
That night we saw with dread surprise
The Hangman's scaffold had grown in size.
Fed by the blood beneath the chute,
The gallows-tree had taken root;
Now as wide, or a little more,
Than the steps that led to the courthouse door,
As tall as the writing, or nearly as tall,
Halfway up on the courthouse wall.
The third he took -- we had all heard tell --
Was a usurer, and an infidel.
"What," said the Hangman "have you to do
With the gallows-bound, and he a Jew?"
And we cried out, "Is this one he
Who has served you well and faithfully?"
The Hangman smiled: "It's a clever scheme
to try the strength of the gallows-beam."
The fourth man's dark, accusing song
Had scratched our comfort hard and long;
"And what concern," he gave us back.
"Have you for the doomed -- the doomed and Black?"
The fifth. The sixth. And we cried again,
"Hangman, Hangman, is this the man?"
"It's a trick," he said. "that we hangmen know
For easing the trap when the trap springs slow."
And so we ceased, and asked no more,
As the Hangman tallied his bloody score.
And sun by sun, and night by night,
The gallows grew to monstrous height.
The wings of the scaffold opened wide
Till they covered the square from side to side;
And the monster cross-beam, looking down,
Cast its shadow across the town.
Then through the town the Hangman came,
Through the empty streets, and called my name --
And I looked at the gallows soaring tall,
And thought, "There is no one left at all
For hanging, and so he calls to me
To help pull down the gallows-tree."
So I went out with right good hope
To the Hangman's tree and the Hangman's rope.
He smiled at me as I came down
To the courthouse square through the silent town.
And supple and stretched in his busy hand
Was the yellow twist of the hempen strand.
And he whistled his tune as he tried the trap,
And it sprang down with a ready snap --
And then with a smile of awful command
He laid his hand upon my hand.
"You tricked me. Hangman!," I shouted then,
"That your scaffold was built for other men...
And I no henchman of yours," I cried,
"You lied to me, Hangman. Foully lied!"
Then a twinkle grew in the buckshot eye,
"Lied to you? Tricked you?" he said. "Not I.
For I answered straight and I told you true --
The scaffold was raised for none but you.
For who has served me more faithfully
Then you with your coward's hope?" said he,
"And where are the others who might have stood
Side by your side in the common good?"
"Dead," I whispered. And amiably
"Murdered," the Hangman corrected me:
"First the foreigner, then the Jew...
I did no more than you let me do."
Beneath the beam that blocked the sky
None had stood so alone as I.
The Hangman noosed me, and no voice there
Cried "Stop!" for me in the empty square.

Maurice Ogden

Thursday, 14 July 2011

Ice free arctic now predicted to occur no less than three separate times

Just a quick one, this. Yes, folks, it's another warble gloaming date for your diary, though this one is a little way off.

SEA ice in the Arctic is melting at a record pace this year, suggesting warming at the north pole is speeding up and a largely ice-free Arctic can be expected in summer months within 30 years.
[...]
Global warming has been melting Arctic sea ice for the past 30 years at a rate of about 3 per cent a decade on average. But the two new data sets suggest that, if these trends continue, a largely ice-free Arctic in summer months is likely within 30 years.
That is up to 40 years earlier than was anticipated in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report.

This prediction comes from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, a body which I'm certain owes absolutely nothing to the large political and public concern, albeit dwindling in the latter case, about warble gloaming and would get exactly the same amount of government funding to the cent if nobody at all believed a word of it. If all the predictions I'm collecting come true it will be the third such ice-free arctic after the 'Gore ice-free arctic' of 2013 and the 'Hadrow ice-free arctic' of 2019. I haven't quite worked out how this latest ice-free arctic is four decades earlier than expectations of the same thing happening just two years from now and six years after that - perhaps ice travels in time if there's enough carbon dioxide above it. It might explain previous ice ages if much of our present day ice has travelled into the past, though I feel that we urgently need to find out if it's being replaced by water from then travelling forward. Just a matter of funding, further research is always needed.

Anyway, whatever the cause of time travelling ice the list of warble gloaming dates for our diaries can be updated to read:

Probably should have happened by now, or failing that should be possible to observe a very large change in that direction - New York's West Side Highway impassable due to being underwater - Dr. James Hansen (1988/89 interview)
Probably should have happened around 2005 ± 1 yr - British children will not know snow in their own country - Dr David Viner (Independent, Mar 2000)
"Imminently" - loss of world's coral reefs - David Attenborough in July 2009 ('world’s tropical reefs face ‘imminent destruction’ unless CO2 levels are slashed')
By 2010 - 50 million refugees climate refugees (UN Environment Program - currently no link for UNEP site but Watts Up With That has details and evidence of claim)
Late 2013 - ice free Arctic - Al Gore (North Pole will be ice free in five years')
2014 - the whole world and everything fucked up beyond repair - WWF.
Dec 2016 - the whole world and everything all fucked up beyond repair - the Prince of Wails and the 100 months mob
Dec 2016 - loss of 'the levers of control' for the climate - the Prince of Fails... again.
Late 2019 - ice free Arctic - Pen Hadow (ten years to Arctic ice loss)
Late 2019 - the whole world and everything fucked up beyond repair - UK Met Office.
Late 2029 - loss of Great Barrier Reef - marine scientist Charlie Veron ('global warming will destroy the World Heritage site within just 20 years')
By approximately 2040 - ice free arctic yet again - NSIDC director Mark Serreze

So, er, do I need sunblock and my bathers for the rest of winter or what?

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@OldRightie · 715 weeks ago

Worry not. Australia heading for a new ice age! http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog

1 reply · active 715 weeks ago

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Angry_Exile 90p · 715 weeks ago

It's that ice travelling back in time from 2040, so it's still warble gloaming's fault. I can even prove it if I'm given enough money to research it. ;)

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Mark · 715 weeks ago

There is actually a video out on Youtube that is Innuit eskimo people being interviewed, one after another, who clearly state that the sun is no longer setting at the same location in the skies that it used to set (which others have been saying this in other parts of the world too), that the snow-drifts that form arrows pointing in the direction of the wind travel from west to east have shifted to pointing from south to north (or whatever the exact change in direction was, maybe not that precisely, I can't remember now) and that the sun is sitting higher up from the horizon line causing the sun's rays to hit more directly and for more time during the day, thus that there is more melting of the ice/snow in the northern areas around the pole. If this is their observation, which they state on the video interview, then it's less likely AGW as it is some repositioning of the earth on its axis tilting toward the sun. It's on Youtube, the video of Innuit eskimo people saying this is their observation.

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Mark · 715 weeks ago

Also a thought but for the northern polar region, that is mostly ice frozen in water - and frozen ice expands, where-as defrosted ice (water) contracts. Put an ice cube in water filled to the brim of a glass and after the ice cube melts, the water will recede from the brim going lower in the glass, not expand and overflow the glass. So this talk of melting ocean ice would actually make the water level recede, not increase.

1 reply · active 715 weeks ago

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Angry_Exile 90p · 715 weeks ago

Probably not a big effect to be seen in a glass of water, and of course there's a little thermal expansion of liquid water too. But certainly there's no doubt that the melting of floating ice does not mean increased sea levels no matter how many times idiot journos write crap like "Regional sea ice is retreating fast, threatening to raise global sea levels..." - I found a nice time lapse video for that blog showing that floating ice does nothing of the kind.

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